Mark Hulbert
speaker
68 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2017
last heard Oct 2017
Mark Hulbert’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
For example, if you're a big institutional investor on Wall Street and you want to get out of stocks and for some reason they put a trading halt in the New York Stock Exchange, all you have to do is go trade on the London Exchange, where most of the big traded stocks
in this country are also trading.
You can also go into the global futures market and sell.
So it turns out this notion that somehow we can prevent the market decline by saying, hey, we're going to have a timeout and have everyone sort of go back to their corners, we're just kidding ourselves.
If they want to get out, they're going to figure out how to get out.
Well, that's right.
Now, it's very, very hard for statisticians to go back through history and try to quantify uncertainty in the way that you talk about.
But there has been some very interesting research recently out of the University of Chicago and Northwestern, those two institutions.
They have a couple of researchers there who have tried to quantify economic policy uncertainty, which reflects geopolitical uncertainty as well.
And they have data going back maybe 20 years, so it's not really as far back in history as you would like.
But nonetheless, what they've been able to do is they basically have created algorithms on their computers that go through all the major news feeds and look for certain terms that are related and correlated with uncertainty.
And if you look at their index, and in fact it's called the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, you do a Google search on that and you can go to their data, which is on their website, it's freely available, and it's fascinating.
But if you look at their latest data, right now economic policy uncertainty is more or less average.
If you look back for the last 20 years, now this is why data are so important here, because as always, it will nevertheless always be the case
that we think uncertainty is greater now than in the past.
It's a function of our minds.
Will we write history as though the past was more certain than it really was and look at today as being more uncertain than ever before?
And that's just not the case if you look at these objective measures of uncertainty.
So right now, even though it feels like there's a lot of uncertainty in terms of relationship to history, we're actually more or less average.
Well, that's right.
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