Mark Hulbert
speaker
68 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2017
last heard Oct 2017
Mark Hulbert’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
We have this is where our minds play subjective tricks on ourselves.
So I think, you know, if there's one broad lesson that we can learn from this is that we need to be data driven in our investing because we aren't necessarily using a reliable basis if we're basing it on our historical memories.
Well, that's right.
These are averages over many, many centuries.
And so he has derived a very complex mathematical model that he believes predicts the frequency of big crashes.
And it's the frequency is calculated as an average over many, many centuries.
So it could be that we'll have two crashes as bad as 1987 in a 50 year period, or it could be that we'll have zero in the next 50 years.
It is that model will not allow us to predict what we'll see in any given instance or given period of time.
But nonetheless, it does suggest that another crash of 1987 magnitude will inevitably occur.
And we're kidding ourselves if we think it will not.
But on the other hand, it doesn't tell you when.
Well, it's one of those things that I think will be it's impossible for us to ever know.
Right.
Because it depends on trying to imagine what would have happened had they not been in place.
We have not had a crash like 1987s in the last 30 years.
So you could say, well, you know, it worked.
And the other you could say, you know, we have regulatory reforms to prevent pink elephants from showing up on Wall Street.
And sure enough, there have been no pink elephants.
But that doesn't tell you really what this cause and effect.
And so.
Showing 41–60 of 68 · page 3 of 4
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