Mark Hulbert
speaker
68 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2017
last heard Oct 2017
Mark Hulbert’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
you know, it's very, very difficult playing the game of counterfactual history because you just don't have the data to allow you to know.
But nonetheless, according to this professor's complex model that he's derived, which actually very closely fits the historical data, not just in the U.S., but of other markets around the world, for which we have a surprising amount of data.
In fact, we have data going back to the 1600s for the London market.
And so you go back and look and it
You can take any magnitude of the decline that you want and use the model to predict how many crashes or declines of that magnitude will have occurred.
And it is very remarkable how much it closely matches the actual frequency of these declines, which gives us some degree of confidence that the model is probably onto something.
And it suggests that we will have another crash, even if we don't know when it will happen.
My pleasure.
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