Marshall Shepherd

speaker

354 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2026 last heard 6d ago

Marshall Shepherd’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.

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Ologies with Alie Ward · Extreme Meteorology (EL NIÑO) with Marshall Shepherd · 16 Sep 2026 podcast

Degrees warmer than normal.

Now, as a reference point, we start thinking about El Nino when we're 0.5 degrees Celsius above average water temperatures in the Central Pacific, and we're already two to three degrees warmer, and it's going to likely get hotter.

And one of the things that is of concern is not just the surface ocean temperatures, but that subsurface water.

I have seen estimates that it's eight degrees warmer than normal.

Normal below the surface as well.

So all of that suggests to me that there's no way we're going to see a downturn in this warming event that's associated with the 2026-2027 El Nino.

I fully expect by November into through February, we will see increasingly amplifying El Nino conditions.

I saw some data from the UN or the World Meteorological Organization.

Saying it's virtually certain, 100% certain that this El Nino will be in place and going strongly in February of 2027.

be doing?

You know, it's interesting because I think over the past, I'd say, thirty to forty years, West Coast inhabitants have been

very aware of El Nino because of the experiences.

And so I think in many ways, relative to other parts of the country, people like yourself that live on the West Coast have an a- an attention span for the El Nino that perhaps others don't.

I think people generally are aware of El Nino, but don't really internalize how significant it can be for weather.

Whereas you know that it can lead to very dangerous

Rainstorms, mudslides.

I think something else that has helped with the messaging on the West Coast is atmospheric rivers.

30 to 50% of the West Coast rainfall in a given year in the U.S.

comes from these atmospheric rivers, these narrow ribbons of water vapor that are actualized into rainfalls.

They landfall along the West Coast.

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