Martin O'Brien

speaker

56 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Dec 2025 last heard 19 Dec

Martin O'Brien’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Dec 2025 with 1.

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Breakfast Business with Joe Lynam · A positive picture for the domestic economy · 19 Dec 2025 podcast

And we'd be hopeful that that plan would see full implementation and then that would translate into

the kind of housing uplift that we critically need.

So it would be, yeah, our inflation outlook is a little bit more stronger.

And that's partly related to the slightly stronger domestic demand outlook as well.

But I think when we sort of dig below it a little bit, what we see in headline inflation the last couple of years has been really dominated by swings in goods prices.

So you've had the energy price swings, you've had food prices being a little bit stronger as well, say earlier this year.

But when we sort of parse back beneath that and look at what are the fundamental sort of key domestic drivers of inflation, those are really reflected in services price inflation, which isn't necessarily traded goods as much.

And when we've done a little bit of work and we see that that's sort of the underlying trend of services inflation.

You know, if you strip out sort of the monthly, you get monthly spikes every once in a while.

But that seems to be at a higher level now than it was before the pandemic.

And it's higher now that it has been, say, since basically back to 2006, 2007 times.

And that's really reflecting off this economy that has been performing very strongly, performing quite close to potential.

It's not above potential.

And that strength of domestic demand is meaning that domestic inflation is a little bit higher and a little bit more persistent than what we would have thought before.

We're not necessarily, we're not certainly forecasting inflation going back to the kind of spikes that we saw, I say, after the Russia-Ukraine war, etc.

But, you know, it is slightly higher than what we would have had in our previous forecast.

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