Martin Wolf

speaker

495 appearances 3 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard Jun 2025

Martin Wolf’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Weekend Edition: A new world reorder, with FT’s Martin Wolf · 15 Nov 2024 podcast

So the question comes is do we start

starts do people start thinking this is the place we have to go because in this very unstable world it's the most powerful safe place in the world?

Or are they going to start feeling, well, maybe it isn't really that safe because it's become so wildly unpredictable.

And there this is you haven't had a situation with the dominant superpower in the world going through a process like this before in the

modern era, I mean the last hundred and fifty years or so.

So it's it's completely unprecedented.

And I have no idea actually how the world will view this and it probably depends on a lot of accidents which we can't

You've got it basically correct.

The uh I've written a great deal about this and followed China very closely for thirty years.

Um my perception is that they have a long term structural problem which makes them look a bit like Japan, but it's not necessary for them to be like Japan because they're still much poorer than Japan was relative to

The world relative to the US, for example, than Japan was in nineteen ninety.

But to fix that, they have to make really quite radical changes in income distribution and spending, which involved dismantling the uh the the core parts of the economic model they've been pursuing for four decades.

And I think it's possible, technically, to do that.

And lots of Chinese economists do, but the Chinese government doesn't want to do it.

And it's very clear that they don't want to do it, and their instincts are trying to preserve as much as they can of the old model.

And I think the old model is sort of bust and it has one core element to simplify it.

They have an absolutely overwhelmingly excessive savings burden.

It's about forty percent of GDP.

And there simply aren't the investment opportunities to absorb that effectively without colossal current account surpluses, which the world will not absorb.

So they have to reduce savings.

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