Martin Wolf

speaker

495 appearances 3 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard Jun 2025

Martin Wolf’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Weekend Edition: A new world reorder, with FT’s Martin Wolf · 15 Nov 2024 podcast

If China's exports are stopped, lots of other countries will either import Chinese imports and put them into their products, or perhaps even start tranche shipment, which is quite a complicated process.

And then there's the Europe opportunity.

So the the Americans will suddenly find imports from other places are exploding upwards.

And that almost certainly, I think, means that the tariffs will tend to convert.

on the ch the tariffs they're imposing on China.

So we could imagine not so long in the future, that the the tariff is sixty percent on everybody and there's retaliation.

So trade could simply collapse.

And that's if that happens, we're talking about a a potential depression.

And uh the optimism of the markets will turn out to be really crazy.

So that we should

Think of that downside.

It's not trivial.

Then on assume that away.

Assume that doesn't happen.

Everybody's sensible.

Remember that the Europeans already make a lot of stuff in America, but and uh no doubt part of what will happen that goes back to our earlier conversation is Europeans and Japanese and others will put more of their capital stock in America, which is what Trump would rather like so they

will still be selling Mercedes, but they won't be actually exported from Europe.

That is a worry for European countries that a lot and then there's the energy price element too.

Energy costs are lower in America.

So that anyway is shifting heavy industry away from Europe.

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