Matt Frei

And that's not surprising because they've always been

the kind of rival army to the uh regular iranian army they are the ones through their domestic besieged militia who have put down demonstrations uh who have killed people on the streets of tehran in january when they were protesting against the regime and against the the parlous state of the economy they are the ones who run uh the arms industry they're the ones who run the shadow oil fleet they're the ones who control vast economic enterprises around the world

So they have been strengthened in their position as a result of this war.

Also because the original Supreme Leader was killed by the Americans on day one, who was an umbrella figure that everyone answered to, regular army, Basij, the IRGC, because he was killed and because his son, who's probably badly injured, doesn't have the legitimacy that the father did, let alone been seen or heard in real person in public.

um it's possible that the irgc has just taken over and of course they're resilient they're claiming victory by dint of just being alive and having a pulse you know and they know how to run stuff and they are the original revolutionary resilient core of the iranian system that has been in place for almost half a century so i think those are the people you're dealing with

Well, indeed, but just on the oil prices, remember that although this is hurting American consumers, because although America might be energy self-sufficient, it's the biggest energy exporter in the world, it is not self-sufficient when it comes to the pricing of energy.

The price is set in the global market, and that's what American consumers have to pay at the gas pump, as they call it.

And that means that whatever the president says or the foreign minister says is probably not worth a string of beans.

But Donald Trump's big friends in Texas, the oil billionaires who promised him the world before the election, and he has delivered very well so far, they're making more money than they ever dreamt of making.

There were even rumors last week that there were impeachment proceedings against Arakci, the foreign minister, because he was seen to be too lenient with America.

So it would be interesting to see that if this pain continues, if the standoff continues around the Strait of Hormuz, and so far all the diplomatic off-ramps there have been destroyed by, you know,

Yeah, and just seeing the London Times reporting that the new Supreme Leader, his serious injuries include burns to his face that will require plastic surgery.

He's finding it difficult to speak.

various issues, whether it's saving face or Iran's surprising resilience, the rule of the IRGC and basically telling Iran's civilian leaders that they're now running the show and they want to carry on with this.

Now, listen, these are reports.

There are those who say that he is not conscious.

But what the Times is reporting is that he is still trying to run the country, despite the fact that he's waiting on this plastic surgery.

He also is missing one of his legs.

So it's a standoff, and it's a standoff around economic pain and your ability to resist it.

So clearly he is very seriously injured.