Matt Teichman

speaker

11,523 appearances 153 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2009 last heard 21 Jul

Matt Teichman’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

Appearances

newest first · ▶ plays the moment

Elucidations · Episode 157: Robin Hanson discusses prediction markets · 21 Jul 2026 podcast

Hello and welcome to Elucidations, an unexpected philosophy podcast.

I'm Matt Tykeman.

I'm Joseph.

And with us today is Robin Hansen, Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, co-host of the Minds Almost Meeting Podcast.

and author of The Age of M and the Elephant in the Brain.

And he is here to talk about prediction markets.

So the main topic that you've worked on in this area is what sometimes gets called prediction markets.

I thought maybe we could open just by explaining in really general terms like what a prediction market is.

What exactly is the difference between the bet working as sort of this like office pool where everybody puts in money and then uh they collect from the general pot if they win, versus this thing where there's an asset that people invest in?

So in both of these scenarios, the pool scenario and the betting market scenario, there is a rule stating if each person puts this amount of money towards guessing that this outcome will happen, there's a you know mathematical formula for determining once we know whether or not the thing happened, uh who gets how much money.

What are some examples of things people have actually tried to predict using this method?

Yeah, the one that I came across actually only very recently, it was like in the middle of a faculty meeting when we were counting the votes during the twenty twenty election.

I learned about predict it.

And I was really shocked at how much more accurate it seemed to be than the forecasts they were making on the news.

Uh they seemed to call exactly like, oh, you know, Georgia's gonna go to Biden at this time and whatever that I forget the other states that went to him surprisingly.

But the these predictions were all made.

Days before um they were made by news outlets.

Yeah, it's uh you know, at least i it's an N of one.

I'm not going to generalize basis of my anecdotal experience, but at least

Ross Powell And do we have a sense of like how much more accurate they are approximately?

Showing 1–20 of 11,523 · page 1 of 577