Matthew Smith
speaker
466 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 21 Jul
Matthew Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
But as you look at 2028, 2029, most of them are adding more capacity, again, just like they did in the early 2000s.
What kinds of companies are these?
Caterpillar is, I think they're doubling their solar turbine capacity between now and the end of 29, which I would judge is just at the exact wrong time when people may be questioning whether they even want to deploy those assets because the gas is much more expensive than they planned.
Bloom Energy, they've been topical recently because of other things that folks are talking about, the rare earths they use in their manufacture, for instance.
But for us, we don't think that Bloom Energy's assets at two gigawatts or more will be able to get natural gas in competition with all of the other assets that are being deployed that will consume gas, given the scarcity that we see.
So those are two manufacturers of distributed generation or BTM generation that we think are probably more poorly positioned than investors appreciate.
It really doesn't make sense to us beyond 2029, 2030 to build large scale natural gas generation until we ramp up production meaningfully and you can make sure we have the security of deliverability of supply of gas.
That's consistent with our model.
We could see orders slow very meaningfully for natural gas generating assets, even at large scale as 26 progresses.
And those could be some of the losers would be, it just may not make sense to use gas for power generation for new or incremental assets after a certain point.
So as we've been socializing this a little bit, trying to learn more and have people poke holes, I've shared this with one of your recent guests.
And he listened and said, well, this sounds like DRAM two years ago.
Slowly at first and then all at once.
The lack of investment in capacity expansion is going to come up to bite us.
And I think that's where the analog starts.
When we think about the way this plays out and other analogs,
That's probably the best one.
And when we think about the cost of the hyperscalers, right now energy is budgeted to be about 10% of their cost.
Depreciation is the highest.
Memory and other things factor into that as well.
Showing 301–320 of 466 · page 16 of 24
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