Matthew Smith

speaker

466 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 21 Jul

Matthew Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy · Matthew Smith — Natural Gas: The Next Bottleneck - [Invest Like the Best, EP.483] · 21 Jul 2026 podcast

But total cost of energy is supposed to be about 10%.

If you plug in all of this compute and it's gas powered, and we think gas could double or triple structurally,

even without weather, it could end up being 20% or 30% of the cost of compute by 2029.

We do think it becomes a much more material issue.

Now, the levelized cost of energy, LCOE as it's referred to, takes into account capex, it takes into account cost of fuel.

Everybody who are making decisions in this moment are using the forward curve for natural gas, which is flat, a little backward, a little contiguous, mostly flat out to the 2030s in the mid-30s.

That is a very attractive, low-cost fuel for the hyperscalers to commit to when they're focused on solving everything else.

Like, how do I get compute in place to manifest in this revenue growth in Anthropic or elsewhere?

For us, we're just focused on modeling objectively.

When you plug in this computer, this compute, and this power gen source here and there, how exactly does it pull on the system of companies that we focus on?

So after we did most of our work, we went on a bit of a listening tour to target conversations with who we think are maybe the subject matter experts in that thing.

So energy storage or hyperscaler compute deployment and energy consumption and the common pushbacks, which we've spent a lot of time understanding are Permian oil play.

Oil is high.

Permian has lots of gas in the ground associated with it.

Why can't Permian productivity just fix problems?

So our base case model already accounts for the seven plus billion cubic feet a day of pipelines that are already being built or developed that come on between 26 and 2030.

If there were a new gas pipeline that would come on between now and 2030, we would know about it.

because of the regulatory processes and the time it takes to build these pipes.

So we've mitigated the risk of being surprised by the Permian by moving into the midstream to understand the bottlenecks constraints.

So beyond the deliverability of the resource or the gas in the ground itself, how much can actually get to market?

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