Michael Weiss

And for them, the window of opportunity is, again, it's narrowing.

Donald Trump is the only guy who would go to war alongside Israel in Iran, full stop.

So by hook or by crook, they need to get this done.

That's how they see it.

That sounds like the sort of hubris of a sclerotic regime that realizes that it's not long for this world, come what may.

The protest movement that was suppressed rather brutally by this regime really demonstrated the extent to which

there is just utter contempt for, you know, the Mullahs.

There is utter contempt for the IRGC, for the Besiege at the popular level in Iran.

So there's a lot of human capital.

And, you know, it's true, we have done things like we smuggled in Starlink communication devices so that the protesters could record what was happening.

Again, there's a war and a covert side of things that we simply don't know because it is covert, right?

And will only come to light later on.

Maybe people have been recruited.

Maybe people inside the regime are making discreet outreach to the West and to the Israelis or whomever.

The other thing I would just caution is

I just read a very long deep dive bit of reporting in The Guardian by Sean Walker about the lead up to the full scale invasion of Ukraine, how the US and the UK knew that the war was coming and got that absolutely right, but then completely cocked up how the war was going to go.

And why did they cock it up?

Because they took the Russian military's estimation of itself at face value.

We are a, a, a bright, shiny army that has been completely rehabilitated and reformed.

And there is not a chance in health that this little country called Ukraine can put up a fight.