Mike Carruthers

Carissa, welcome to Something You Should Know.

It seems like human nature to want to predict the future and to also hear other predictions about the future because, you know, it's something.

You know, I want to hear the weather prediction for tomorrow because, yes, it could be wrong.

But it's probably not too wrong and, you know, gives me something to go on.

But, you know, if you want to predict the winning lottery numbers, well, you know, I'm not too interested in that because you can't do that.

I mean, some things are predictable and some things are not predictable.

And the predictable things I think I want to hear about.

I'd rather hear a prediction from someone with a track record of making accurate predictions than to just be flying blind.

It also seems that the prediction, how the prediction is made makes a big difference.

If it's just my opinion, that's one thing.

If there's some data to support the prediction, that's something else entirely.

Well, certainly most predictions, it would seem, a lot of them are based on the past, that what is likely to happen in the future is probably what's happened in the past or some variation of that, but that the basis for the prediction is what has happened before.

Understanding what you're saying about predictions and the dangers of them, what would be better, though?

I mean, it seems like it's an inexact science at best, but there's nothing better, right?

History is full of people who made predictions, and a lot of the predictions in the past have been way off.

They haven't even been based on anything.

They've just been somebody's opinion or somebody's wild fantasies.

Do you think that people learn from that?

It seems...

I mean, there are people who make predictions who are often wrong, but, you know, the media keeps going back to them and asking for their prediction again and again and again.