Mike Gapen
speaker
88 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 30 Jul
Mike Gapen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Not necessarily.
I do think markets went into the meeting
thinking the risk here is that we would get a Fed chair who wanted to demonstrate inflation-fighting bona fides and would raise rates despite what was generally favorable incoming data over the intermeeting period.
And you're right, it was 9 to 3, and there were three dissents in favor
But what you didn't hear was, say, a Fed chair that said, oh, the decision was close.
We debated it.
Some wanted to hike, some didn't.
Here was the rationale behind that.
He didn't really offer much in any way of an explanation of why the Fed decided to stay on hold or why the three dissenters in favor of a hike felt that way.
So yes, on the vote alone,
It was nine to three.
It felt like maybe there was debate for a hike, but I'm not convinced it was a hawkish hold in the sense that he didn't say necessarily express a willingness to tighten policy in the near term.
So I think markets came away from this a little confused.
I think it's fair to say the Fed chair that wants to hike just for credibility reasons
that path has diminished in terms of its probability.
It's unclear what came behind it.
If the market reaction is any vote, it was a little more of a dovish hold because what the markets did was take down the probability of rate hikes later this year, and it raised what we would call break-even rates of inflation.
So there's a gap between
yields on nominal treasury securities and yields on real treasury securities.
And that gap includes the market's view of inflation expectations.
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