Mike Gapen
speaker
88 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 30 Jul
Mike Gapen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
So what we call break even rates of inflation.
So those went up today.
So I think the market's a little confused and it wonders if maybe the bar for rate hikes is higher
than they thought.
And what that would mean is potentially inflation that runs hotter.
So I think it was a bit of a confusing message for markets.
Let me answer this or start an answer anyway.
Yeah.
By taking a step back and seeing what markets did going into the meeting, right?
So Warsh did, you know, he was nominated.
He came in, he gave press conference in June.
We had some initial remarks from him that the markets interpreted as fairly hawkish, a Fed chair who might be committed to
to achieving two percent inflation outcomes right chastising the fed for not having delivered on that for um for five years and around so then we got some positive inflation data and the market thought well that must matter and it reduced its likelihood for for rate hikes but then we got more conflict in the middle east and oil prices went up
Somewhere in there, before the oil conflict came around and oil prices went up, Chair Warsh had said at the ECB's meeting in Sintra in Portugal, he said, well, inflation risks have come down.
We got favorable inflation, oil prices came down.
He said things were moving in the right direction.
Then all of a sudden, oil went the other direction.
What did markets do?
Markets responded to that by increasing the probability of hikes in the short term, and it raised 10-year yields almost on a one-to-one basis with movements in oil.
And moving 10-year yields higher, real rates rose, but market expectations of inflation stayed stable.
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