Mike Gapen
speaker
88 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 30 Jul
Mike Gapen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
my interpretation of that is they viewed chairman warsh as bringing a hawkish reaction function and if if oil prices mattered on the way down they must matter on the way up therefore the fed's going to respond to this by raising rates so it went into the meeting with the yield curve flattening right moving higher but flattening because they priced in hikes in the front end and moved the 10-year yield higher and real rates went went higher and the dollar appreciated
What happened after today's meeting?
All of that reversed.
But front end yields came way down.
Nominal 10-year yields actually went up.
As you noted, the 30-year rate went up a lot.
and the dollar depreciated.
So the market took down probability of cuts and priced in inflation running higher than it had expected.
Now, one would interpret that as saying that the Fed has a more dovish reaction function than we thought.
I think as you're saying, and I would agree, I'm not sure that's the right takeaway.
What we know is that maybe that inflation-fighting Fed didn't appear today.
Will it appear tomorrow?
Maybe, maybe not.
But the market came out of today thinking there's a higher bar to raise rates.
And if so, the market is probably testing the Fed now.
It's saying, oh, you want to restore price stability, but you're not really saying that tighter monetary policy or higher short-term interest rates are part of that solution.
So that's about the best I can do given development.
Well, we do think inflation will come down into year-end.
So that 4% figure you mentioned we think is probably the peak.
and inflation will be coming down.
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