Mike Gapen

speaker

88 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 30 Jul

Mike Gapen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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I think the question is ultimately in our minds, how far does it come down?

And I think this is an argument that the rest of the committee was probably debating today.

So Chairman Warsh has a view, you can call it unconventional, that's fine.

The rest of the committee, I would say, has a fairly conventional view

And I think what they're debating is it feels like inflation will be coming down.

The question is how much and how long do we let this play out?

And so you may still get rate hikes later this year if you talk to the rest of the committee, and that's what I think the dissents were today.

Our view is that inflation comes down to around 3.3 or so by the end of the year and could diminish further in 2027.

And if that's right, then we think the Fed can stay on hold for the rest of the year.

If not,

And that's too optimistic.

You're right.

Maybe oil prices have greater second round effects on other transportation costs.

So it's not just a gasoline story.

It's things like airfares and food prices.

So maybe conflict in the Middle East can keep oil prices and other core inflation prices elevated.

The Fed has no choice but to respond to that.

Cooler heads prevail over time and exit ramps are taken and payback from tariff inflation and shelter prices and so forth pull inflation down.

We'll see that's still highly uncertain.

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