Mike Knoop

speaker

927 appearances 4 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2025 last heard 18 Nov

Mike Knoop’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.

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TBPN · Gemini 3 Launch, Big Tech Backs Anthropic, OpenAI Adds Fidji Simo | Jonathan Neman, Mike Knoop, Ashlee Vance, Jeremy Epling, Keone Hon, Stephen Balaban · 18 Nov 2025 podcast

Um still very early on V four, but uh but yeah, we're starting to explore ideas there.

I was looking back at my uh the the whole ARC team actually made some predictions back in January when we released V2 on what did we expect end of year scores would look like.

Uh now obviously if we're only November eighteenth, a lot happens in in AI, who knows what the next six weeks hold.

Um but my personal prediction was that we would see about twenty-five percent on the private leaderboard for R V Two on the Caggo contest, and we'd see about fifty percent on the public leaderboard.

Uh uh and and that was sort of based on the ratios we had seen from arc price twenty twenty four and you know those sort of scaling difficulties with V two.

And it looks like we're pretty gonna come in pretty close to that, unless but barring some other major any breakthroughs towards the end of the year.

Um, that seems like we're probably where we're gonna end up the year at.

Um and uh and then who knows on twenty twenty six.

Yeah, I think it

I if we're really gonna solve both V two, it feels like we gotta

better understand why these AI reasoning systems still make sort of obvious mistakes on the V1 set.

Um and yeah, I I that's that's an anomaly.

So I I think it that's that's more serious study uh to like come up with new ideas to sort of prove these reasoning systems.

I I mean our our objective function is not

longevity necessarily.

It is usefulness and interestingness.

Um I think the tasks that have the highest degree of usefulness and interestingness are ones where, you know, oh hey, this could

um be useful and interesting for like three years.

the Arc One was useful and interesting for arguably five years.

I mean, even this year it's still interesting because we haven't broken like we're still sort of within this sort of paradigm still.

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