Nassim Nicholas Taleb
speaker
72 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2012
last heard Dec 2012
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
There are events that are very hard to predict, nearly impossible to predict, and can carry massively large consequences.
But after the fact, events are so explainable that you provide a narrative that gives you the illusion of understanding the world.
And of course, we continue mispredicting.
The mistake people made is to say, well, you know, let's try to predict them, right?
You're not going to get there.
So my point is about having systems that don't fall apart under these extreme circumstances.
And that's much easier than predict anything.
Exactly.
I was imagining that as an author, I hit someone and I beat him up, say, physically.
I'd be arrested probably.
It'd be in the newspapers.
My publisher would be thrilled.
But if a minister, part of the government, beats up a fragilista or something like that, he's going to be in trouble.
Exactly.
By definition, an antifragile system has to use errors as fuel.
And unfortunately, when you have a system, the components of the system may suffer.
So let's take air travel.
A plane crashes.
70 persons die.
Extremely sad.
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