Nassim Nicholas Taleb
speaker
72 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2012
last heard Dec 2012
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
But now you know that air travel will save more lives in the future because we're never going to let that air go to waste.
So the probability of the next plane crashing has dropped.
So failures cannot be predicted, but you want to make sure that unlike the airline crashing, the probability of the next crash is not higher.
And unfortunately, when a bank fails, the next bank is more likely to fail.
So you have to make sure that the system doesn't have contagion of failure.
There are events that are very hard to predict, nearly impossible to predict, and can carry massively large consequences.
But after the fact, events are so explainable that you provide a narrative that gives you the illusion of understanding the world.
And, of course, we continue mispredicting.
The mistake people made is to say, well, you know, let's try to predict them.
You're not going to get there.
And a lot of people who didn't see the crisis of 2008 coming keep thinking that sophisticated models are going to get somewhere.
Exactly.
So my point is about having systems that don't fall apart under these extreme circumstances, and that's much easier than predicting anything.
Exactly.
I was imagining that as an author, I hit someone and I beat him up, say, physically.
I'd be arrested probably.
It'd be in the newspapers.
My publisher would be thrilled.
But if a minister, part of the government, beats up a fragilista or something like that, he's going to be in trouble.
Exactly.
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