Nate Silver
speaker
1,377 appearances
5 recordings
5 series
first heard Feb 2025
last heard 29 Jun
Nate Silver’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 2.
Appearances
We're never going to know that with any degree of certainty.
There is like a margin of error.
But in practice, and we know this too.
When you do have recounts, again, I've studied this a lot, you have an 0.5% recount threshold in most states.
Almost never have you had a margin larger than 0.05% or so overturned.
The errors can also cancel out.
Again, the notion that someone can vote without physically being the ward of their ballot, I understand why that bothers people, and I think California has been
complacent about this and i think perception does matter and i think you can there's a kind of certain arrogance i guess is a term that comes to mind um about saying well we want everyone to vote and so we're going to do things our way and it takes a long time because we're like taking time to verify things again you know having studied elections all around the world
It's very unusual.
Most countries we count much, much faster than the U.S.
It's partly because we have an electoral college system.
It's decentralized.
But in most elections in France or the U.K., where they keep having elections or wherever else, or Japan or India even, you know the result of the vote within a few hours.
And the fact that the United States, the technological leader of the world, and the supposed beacon of democracy can't do that, I think is a sign of atrophy of...
of the efficacy of the system.
I mean, Democrats have lost plenty of elections recently, but not in California.
Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the U.S., right?
Like my job, don't worry, I will get criticized if we say, oh, whatever, Gavin Newsom or AOC is a 55% favorite and they lose.
But 43 of the 50 states stated, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028.
And it's not because of rigging, it's because...
Showing 161–180 of 1,377 · page 9 of 69
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