Neil Freiman

The stage was set for another wipeout in the markets yesterday.

Over the weekend, President Trump had issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or else he would strike power plants all over the country.

Iran, rebuffing those calls, vowed to retaliate with damaging strikes of its own.

The war appeared to be on the verge of escalating dangerously.

And then came the taco, the trade Wall Street has dubbed Trump always chickens out.

Just as we wrapped up recording the podcast yesterday morning, President Trump posted the surprise news that his pledge to strike energy targets was postponed for five days after the U.S.

and Iran held, quote,

a complete and total resolution of our hostilities.

Almost instantaneously, stocks went vertical and held onto their gains for the entire day, with the S&P closing up 1.15%.

Meanwhile, skyrocketing U.S.

oil prices fell back down to earth, plunging nearly 10% to close below $90 a barrel.

Wall Street was ecstatic to hear progress on a diplomatic end to a conflict that had already caused the biggest energy supply shock in history and was inflicting more economic damage by the day.

Of course, nothing is so clear-cut.

After Trump's post, Iran denied that any conversations had taken place with the U.S.

and accused Trump of manipulating financial and oil markets with his announcement.

One thing we can assume, the timing wasn't a coincidence.

Trump made the announcement just hours before trading opened at 9.30 a.m.

Eastern, suggesting that, as we saw with Liberation Day tariffs, he is well aware of market dynamics and was aiming to signal to Wall Street that an off-ramp was coming into view.

Whether that's actually true or not, we don't know.

Oh, these were extremely suspicious, just the timing of it.