Nick Timiraos
speaker
252 appearances
6 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2017
last heard Nov 2024
Nick Timiraos’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
That would be a return to normal.
That's an important part of it, because what you want to see are
wages rising a little bit faster than prices, but you don't want 6% wage growth with 5% price growth because that's not sustainable.
So what the Fed would like to see here is inflation coming back to their target, which is 2%, and wage growth running a little bit above that so that you can still keep up with the necessities of life, but not in a way that's going to cause real
economic instability.
When inflation's high, it just becomes hard for businesses and households to plan ahead.
There are a number of reasons to explain strong job growth.
One would be that some sectors have still not caught up from the pandemic.
So if you look at the leisure and hospitality sector, this is a sector that was really hard hit by the pandemic.
employment dropped a ton in 2020.
And even though that sector has added a million jobs over the last year, there's still about a million jobs short of where you would have expected
If we hadn't had the pandemic, if you extend the trend in hiring from the previous 30 years forward, we're still a million short of where you would expect leisure and hospitality jobs to be.
So part of this is catch-up hiring.
Part of it is just the economy's strong, demand is strong.
If people have jobs, they will spend money.
If people spend money and they are purchasing goods and services, businesses will need to hire more people.
It doesn't by itself indicate a recession, but it does indicate that the labor market is cooling.
And I think the big question right now in the market for economists, for the Federal Reserve is,
We all know the economy's slowing.
You couldn't have sustained the really eye-popping growth rates that we saw when we reopened from the pandemic in 2021 and 2022.
Showing 81–100 of 252 · page 5 of 13
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