Nick Timiraos
speaker
252 appearances
6 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2017
last heard Nov 2024
Nick Timiraos’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
A lot of the economists that we pull in our quarterly survey have either pushed out their expectations of a recession, or they've said, you know what, we're not going to have one after all.
Recessions happen.
They're hard to predict.
There are lots of different shocks that can cause them, like a pandemic, as we learned four years ago, and you can't forecast those things.
But if you look at the economy right now, it has weathered
the five percentage point increase in short-term interest rates by the Fed far better than almost anybody imagined.
To the present moment, things are looking a lot better.
You can't really say all clear because interest rates are higher than anybody expected they would be a few years ago.
But households and businesses seem to be managing through this process probably better than you would have thought any time in the last year or two.
The price of everything you buy, and especially the most salient things you buy, like food or coffee, the price of what you're used to paying for a sandwich is a lot higher than it was four years ago.
But when we write about inflation, we're looking at the 12-month change in prices.
When you hear inflation news on the radio or TV,
That's the way it's being measured.
And so the 12-month change has come down quite a bit.
And there's a disconnect there because people weren't used to prices going up as much as they've gone up.
And so it's going to take time for...
everybody to get accustomed to the fact that prices are not going to go back down.
The price that you pay for your sandwich, your favorite item from the diner, it's not going to go down.
That would be deflation, and that's very unlikely to happen.
But the hope here is that prices don't keep going up quite as much as they've been going up.
Showing 61–80 of 252 · page 4 of 13
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