Nicolas Owens

speaker

125 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 5 Aug

Nicolas Owens’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.

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Prof G Markets · SpaceX Is Down 40% — How Low Can It Go? · 16 Jul 2026 podcast

I think there's two kind of buckets that I would want to point out there.

First of all,

maybe working backwards.

It's quick, I think, partly because the flow is still so small, only four-ish percent of the company.

But then on top of that, I think, and I go back and forth between thinking about the fundamentals, like what do you have to believe about AI, data centers in space, et cetera, or what the margins on that might be in 10 years.

And then you go to just the market, the supply and demand for the shares themselves, right?

So both of those should drive the price.

So I think here you have

In the next couple of weeks, I think they're supposed to announce earnings August something, August 8th or 9th.

And two days after that, a whole nother 7% of the company can be sold by insiders.

So that's supply.

And then I wanted to comment on the NASDAQ 100 inclusion, which is notable because it was a result of some changes in their methodology and so forth.

But I think actually not even that huge a deal in terms of demand.

So I agree.

I googled what's the market cap of all the funds that track the NASDAQ 100, and it's something like $800 billion.

Or if it's $800 billion and they're weighting it at 1%, that's $8 billion of demand that would have been a result of that inclusion, which does not offset, if you look at the market cap and even with the float, the potential supply of someone who bought it at $135 and was selling at $156 or whatever in the last couple of weeks.

I think that seems likely my my, I think, to kind of, so I go back then to the fundamentals, what are what are maybe some changes in what people believe about what's, you know, what drives the value of this stock, there's certainly the Starlink business, which is actually kind of the gem, you know, right now, but you have motivated competitors,

making some advances in their launch and their technology.

Ironically, I think that the economics of this business may resemble the terrestrial telecoms business where Morningstar would call it an efficient scale source of moat, which is problematic because the more players there are, the worse the economics get.

So SpaceX is kind of king of the hill there.

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