Nicolas Owens

speaker

125 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 5 Aug

Nicolas Owens’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.

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Prof G Markets · SpaceX Is Down 40% — How Low Can It Go? · 16 Jul 2026 podcast

And having a eager competitor launching a bunch of satellites looks like a capacity glut could happen.

And so pricing doesn't look as good.

So there's maybe some overhang, even on the Starlink case.

In terms of AI,

there's so many assumptions you have to make to get to these upside scenarios.

And the payoff there, you know, is in, let's call it decades.

And there's a couple of news items I would point to.

Meta starting to rent out capacity, open AI platforms,

probably delaying their IPO.

Those are things that would make people question the thesis of what is the ROI on all these investments that have been made.

And SpaceX today looks a lot like an infrastructure play and also an LLM that is not in the top ranks, shall we say.

So lots to question.

I would sort of like to go back to first principles, and I would say things like the market works on disagreement, and it's really good that investors have, let's say, different sources of information about what do you have to believe to buy this or that version of what the stock might be worth.

I think there's also a methodological difference.

I have a discounted cashflow model.

We have forecasts out to 2045.

We're discounting those today.

So we're saying these shares are fundamentally worth $62 today.

Again, probability weighted.

A lot of those analyses that you're referring to

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