Noah Smith

speaker

437 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 24 Jul

Noah Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Prof G Markets · America’s Economy Is Entering a New Era — ft. Noah Smith · 24 Jul 2026 podcast

We need to just use AI as much as possible to figure out what we can use this for.

And then they just token max, token max, token max.

And then this drives demand up.

And then, you know, OpenAI and Anthropic and Google and whoever make reckless capital budgeting decisions based on the idea that that growth curve will continue.

And then it doesn't continue and it collapses.

Because people are like, wait a second, we're not actually building shippable software.

We're not shipping profitable software with all these tokens.

What are these tokens going to produce?

Then we could see a crash, right?

And China's companies might be better able to weather that crash than us because of state subsidies, you know, keeping them alive.

And keep in mind, by the way, that most of these state subsidies are delivered through

below market rate bank loans, not through the government mails you a check.

So that's how most of these subsidies are actually getting done.

The United States has the capability to match that if we were to use, modify the Dodd-Frank legislation to get our big banks

lending to AI and also to manufacturers, by the way.

If we want to do industrial policy, if we want to fund it, if we want to subsidize, it's not by mailing.

I mean, mailing government checks like we did with the CHIPS Act can be effective, but I think the most effective and durable way of subsidizing things is actually through bank loans.

And we already have the legislation in place, that's Dodd-Frank, to be able to do that.

All we have to do is say, hey guys,

hey, JP Morgan Chase, if you lend to these strategic industries, whatever, you can loosen your tier one capital requirements.

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