Noah Smith

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437 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 24 Jul

Noah Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Prof G Markets · America’s Economy Is Entering a New Era — ft. Noah Smith · 24 Jul 2026 podcast

Usage is exploding.

I think OpenAI will probably get there.

And then so far, the profitability of these companies doesn't necessarily seem to be under threat.

If we see Anthropic and OpenAI struggling to find the capital to invest in the next generation models, then we should be worried.

Until then, there's nothing that AI dumping really does except for attack OpenAI and Anthropic.

Now, maybe you can make an argument that it's hurting some of our players further down the line, like Google could be getting hurt, or maybe Meta has been driven out of the AI race by the fact that they can't afford to keep up with Chinese inference because of dumping.

So that's something that deserves to be looked into.

But so far, if OpenAI and Anthropic are still, if their profitability is still improving rapidly, I'm not so worried because that's the mechanism by which dumping would hurt us.

I haven't seen evidence of that yet, but it could happen.

have not seen evidence of a demand side crisis yet.

Demand for all these things continues to explode.

That demand is, you know, going to American companies.

A lot of that, you know, we've seen demand for, you know, sort of cheap substitute from China also rise.

That's inevitable.

You know, like I said, you might say that like, oh, Gemini isn't as good.

Google's falling behind because there's not enough demand for their products because they're being, you know, as a slightly lower down the hierarchy, slightly behind the frontier model, they're being outcompeted by Google.

Chinese models with subsidized inference.

So you could see that.

I think the bigger danger on demand is sort of basically a collapse due to temporary overuse.

So if you have every company that says, we need to token max, guys.

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