Patrick Boyle
speaker
346 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 13 Jul
Patrick Boyle’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
You can buy a thing and that can happen, but you should recognize that you were probably lucky and you didn't necessarily predict it.
And that in the long run, like, you know, if you're 20 years old right now and you're going to retire in, you know, 40, 45 years time,
you're you should hopefully just harvest the general market return you know because for every you know lucky win you'll have you'll probably have another unlucky loss and it probably balances out to giving you about the return of the S&P assuming you don't go too crazy and like leave her up at the wrong time or you know cut all of your losses at the bottom or whatever so
That's even the thing is that the whole argument behind, like if you listen to people defend prediction markets, they say, well, you know, what's happening here is that it's sort of providing information.
It's, you know, it's kind of real economic events been bet on.
But I believe some like 90% of the gambling is just on sports.
Like it's just sports betting, you know.
And it's wild the idea that the CFTC is now a sports regulator of sorts.
But even one of the problems, even about using it to bet on events, like if you want to bet on a smaller election or something like that, is it possibly becomes worthwhile for a marginal candidate to sort of put a bit of money behind it.
And suddenly the journalists all get on the air and kind of go like, oh, and this guy is really coming up from behind.
No one expected this.
But the
prediction markets say that he's now the leading candidate.
It's like, or did he just drop a million bucks on a contract, you know?
It's worth noting there's a requirement for balance.
Like, I felt...
A few years ago, there was, I think, what was it, the FTC blocked a merger between two handbag brands by claiming that there would be sort of a monopoly in mid-priced, I don't know, I forget, it was Coach and Michael Kors or something like that.
And they said, no, this would be a monopoly.
And it's like, I'm sorry, but there's no such thing as a monopoly in the fashion industry.
Like there's always someone willing to make a bag at a different price point.
Showing 241–260 of 346 · page 13 of 18
← Previous
Next →