Paul Bloxham
speaker
100 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 3 Jun
Paul Bloxham’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Productivity is not improving.
And this is all before.
we see and face the big impact of the shocks that are still coming through.
And look, our take is the sharp fall you've seen since then in business confidence, consumer confidence.
You've seen employment fall in April and the unemployment rate jumped to a four-year high in April.
You've seen household spending fall in April.
And then more recently, you've seen house prices decline and auction clearance rates coming down.
I think that collection of information tells you that things are going to weaken more in the coming period.
And our own
Headline view, we've had this view now for a couple of months because since these shocks arrived, we took sort of a view that it was going to actually be a big deal.
Our view is that GDP will probably contract in the second quarter, that we'll actually see an outright contraction.
The economy's already in a downturn because of those shocks that are playing through.
I think that the economy was stronger than was expected in the second half of last year, in the second half of 2025.
I think that's true.
And that's still in the numbers that you saw, that's still in the current vintage of the figures.
And I think it was stronger in an economically significant way.
And it turns out that because of the combination of growth being stronger, demand being stronger and rising more quickly through last year, and it turns out the supply side of Australia's economy, and in principle, what we're saying is productivity has remained weak because the supply side was weaker than expected and demand picked up stronger than expected.
I think that combination was a key feature as to why inflation ended up surprising to the upside today.
surging.
And of course, that triggered the RBA to have to lift its policy rate this year three times already.
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