Paul Bloxham

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100 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 3 Jun

Paul Bloxham’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.

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FEAR & GREED | Business News · Q+A: Is Australia already sliding into an economic downturn? · 3 Jun 2026 podcast

So I think that's still all true.

I think that what we've seen now is that growth is already starting to moderate a bit into the first quarter of this year.

And I wouldn't get really caught up with, you know, we wouldn't be too worried.

I don't

think about this print being softer if it weren't for the fact that we've got all these other negative shocks that have just arrived and they're all telling us in the timely indicators that it's about to get a whole lot weaker and the starting point is already a point that's you know a little a bit on the softer side so standalone these numbers are probably not that worrisome but once you add together that you've got all these other shocks coming through and you've got all these timely indicators that are telling you that things are going to weaken quite a bit from here that starts to get a

I think that the chances that we have two consecutive quarters of GDP going backwards are now getting higher.

I haven't got it quite as my central case at this point.

I'm calling for one quarter of negative GDP in the second quarter and that we meander through, we sort of struggle through, if you like, in terms of growth from there.

But I think the chances, the risk...

has increased that we have a longer period that actually it turns out we have a couple of quarters where GDP contracts.

I think the other way to think about this, and this is where it gets a bit tricky because that is what you might call a technical recession, but whether you have a recession or not is often sort of defined on how well the labor market performs.

And so how quickly the unemployment rate rises, how much the unemployment rate rises, these are the sorts of things that we look at when we look back and try to determine whether something was genuinely a recession or not.

Famously, we didn't have a technical recession when the global financial crisis hit in late in 2008 because we only had one quarter where GDP contracted.

But we had a one and three quarter percentage point rise in the unemployment rate.

It rose quite steeply and it rose quite a lot.

So you might sort of, depending on how you judge it, think that that was a recession or not a recession.

Economists are not entirely sort of clear on exactly how you define a recession.

Our view is

We're going into a downturn.

That downturn's already begun.

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