Paul Bloxham
speaker
100 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 3 Jun
Paul Bloxham’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
That's, I think, where we probably differ from the street.
Different to the consensus, we think that downturn's already underway in the second quarter.
And the question of whether it ends up being sort of more than one quarter of contraction in GDP, I think that's still an open case, but the risk is rising.
Yeah, the rise in the unemployment rate, I think the four and a half it rose to, was definitely something that I think the RBA is going to have an eye on.
And I think the way I think about this is, look, inflation's obviously the primary challenge, and it's certainly what they're going to say is the primary challenge at the moment, rightly so.
It's risen.
It's been too high for too long.
And they're doing something about it by lifting interest rates.
But I think the point at which they're convinced that the labour market has really turned the corner and has started to really weaken.
And, you know, we've only had one fall and one print, one monthly print where employment's fallen and the unemployment rate's jumped.
It might take just a bit more than that.
But if this is what I think it is, what our forecast is,
thinking it is, is the beginning of a labor market that's turning to be quite a bit weaker.
I think at that point, the RBA won't be lifting interest rates any further.
And I think they'll give sort of there'll be two ways to think about that.
One rationale would be, well, inflation's high and it's going to rise a bit further, but we know
that inflation is not going to be high further down the track because actually the jobs market is loosening.
And so that's going to take the heat out of the labour market and mean that inflation will track back to target.
That will be one of the arguments that will be put forward.
And then, of course, the other one will be that the RBA has a dual mandate.
Showing 61–80 of 100 · page 4 of 5
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