Paul Bloxham
speaker
100 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 3 Jun
Paul Bloxham’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
They don't just target inflation.
They target maintaining as close to full employment as they can manage.
And so I think the key here is...
Has the labour market turned?
Now, we've got a bit of evidence that it might have because of that jump in the unemployment rate and the fall in employment.
If we get another print that looks a bit like that, that's on the soft side, then I think it's going to be quite convincing that the RBA won't be lifting interest rates any further.
They'll sit still with their above.
neutral policy setting.
And that, by the way, is our central case.
That's what we've got in mind.
We think that we are in a downswing already.
We think we're going to get a contraction in GDP in the second quarter.
We think that the labour market is going to continue to weaken and we don't think the RBA is going to feel like they need to lift interest rates any further from here.
But, and here's the key, right?
I don't think they're gonna turn around and cut interest rates anytime soon.
And if the economy really is in a downturn and it turns out it's a bigger downturn than even I'm forecasting, I don't know whether the RBA has got the luxury of being able to cut interest rates very, very soon.
And so that would make the cycle look a bit different because the key circuit breaker in previous cycles, when the economy goes into a downswing,
and into a downturn and the unemployment rate starts rising, is the RBA starting to cut interest rates?
But can they do that when inflation is still sticky and elevated?
I think that's what's going to make this story that plays out over the next few quarters quite a different one.
Showing 81–100 of 100 · page 5 of 5
← Previous