Paul Kedrosky
speaker
1,259 appearances
4 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 3d ago
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
So going back to the original point, it's now in the treasury data.
It was in the originally in GDP data.
And so um just on the uh on the inflation data, I'll take it as a l one step further, which is even more which is even crazier.
If you
back out all the AI capex related inflation, and if you back grant me that energy increasingly is being driven by this campaign that was so AI enabled and thus AI has a role in it, back those two pieces out of the US economy.
Okay, so there's two, there's well, uh multiple components to this.
So the inflationary component in this from the standpoint of US consumers is utility prices and gas prices.
So it's not let's not get into the embedded price of gasoline or energy in terms of how it plays into the products you purchase, but that obviously is another issue and because it shows up in shipping and other places.
But the direct one that people are feel most consequentially are prices at the pump, if whether you're
An individual with gas or a c or a trucker with diesel.
Um, and then obviously utility prices, both of which, both pieces of which have gone sharply higher over the last three years, in part driven by either competition for the for energy from the standpoint of data data centers or uh the Iran war.
So these two things, and I'm arguing that the Iran war is in part a function of of the sort of emboldened uh US government treating everything as kind
of a an AI enabled app in the wake of Venezuela.
So if you grant me that
Then what you find out really quickly is actually the US economy, far from being very strong and actually going growing so strongly that it's justified for the Fed to raise rates to try and choke off inflation, back those pieces out.
And by my math, the US is actually in a deflationary mode, about a quarter of a percent.
So what we have happening is something very analogous to what happened in the walk-up to the crash of 29, which is you have
Had the Fed raising rates because it misunderstood what was actually happening in the economy and it thinks it's choking off inflation.
But the inflation is actually something exogenous, something different than what they expect.
It's being driven by this capex and by these anomalous war.
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