Paul Kedrosky
speaker
1,259 appearances
4 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 3d ago
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
So as a result, as this unwinds and it will unwind, the war will end and capex will taper off.
You actually have high rates in a weak consumer environment, which is a classic.
класик precursor to what
There's an economist named Richard Koo who's written a lot about the Japanese fifteen year recession that was sort of went on and on and on.
People called it the happy recession.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
The lost era.
So those those are classic precursors to those kinds of recessions because you now have companies that have loaded their balance sheet up and it will take a decade for them to unwind all this debt.
So rates will have no impact on them.
They'll simply be trying to cut spending to reduce debt, and that will play out over the next ten years.
So we've got all the pieces in place right now for a a very long balance sheet recession analogous to what happened to
Japan in its in its last decade.
So what happens is, and leaving aside for a second some of the more, how shall I say, less investment grade prospects out there, the core weaves and others, because they're they face a different a different problem, which is as they try to roll over their debt, it may come at on terms over the next five years that force that force them into some species of insolvency.
And that's fairly typical.
But let's say you're a hyperscaler of some of the largest companies out there that don't face solvency risk.
They're not gonna likely go broke.
What they're going to spend the next decade doing is cleaning up their balance sheet.
Because they just went from some of the least indebted companies in the market, tech historically had very low levels of long term and short term debt, to some of the most indebted companies in the economy.
And we see this as they uh as they sort of soak up all their cash flow and sort of in the case of some of these guys uh increasingly teeter on the edge of having their credit uh rating downgraded.
And so what a balance sheet recession means is essentially I'm having
Showing 221–240 of 1,259 · page 12 of 63
← Previous
Next →