Paul Kedrosky
speaker
1,259 appearances
4 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 5d ago
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
The problem, of course, is this is a little bit like the Saudis handing out Humvees to everyone in America.
People say, wow, this is awesome.
I love having a Humvee.
And then you have to fill it up.
And so for a little while, it was like we were subsidizing these grotesquely profligate users of tokens, just like profligate users of gasoline.
And then all of a sudden the bill comes due and you say, wait a minute, this thing's a pig.
Yeah.
It's a lot of gas.
I don't want to drive it for groceries anymore.
And the exact same phenomenon is true with respect to being, again, exposed to having your ass hanging in the breeze of real token prices.
No, and this is the deep structural problem because they were brought in through the side door of bundled pricing and now that's becoming unbundled.
And of course, that also is reflected in...
What we're told, and I think the Wall Street Journal and others have written about this, and it'll be interesting, we see the final S1s for some of the upcoming IPOs, that there is this attempt to try and even mask it in the financial filings where you get into this phenomenon of what we used to call earnings before bad stuff.
And so what they're trying to do is hide the costs.
of training the models and saying that's not actually an operating cost, that's a capital cost, and we shouldn't have to show that as a function of what actually the margins are on producing tokens.
And that is, of course, a cheat, right?
Because if that's true, then you should be able to capitalize these things and expense them for a long period of time.
And we know full well that these are actually operating costs because they tell us that every 18 months we're launching a new major model.
These things are not capitalized.
These are operating expenses that should be
Showing 561–580 of 1,259 · page 29 of 63
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