Paul Kedrosky
speaker
1,259 appearances
4 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 5d ago
Paul Kedrosky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
But this is the deep structural problem.
And it gets worse, of course, because once you unbundle token pricing, and then you're looking at...
the actual year-over-year decline in quality-adjusted token pricing.
And you see the inherent deflationary curve underneath the hood.
Now let's connect that to how all of these data centers that are producing these deflating tokens are being constructed.
So over the last, since 2022, on an annualized basis, on a performant basis, so ignoring this continual jump to the frontier, if you imagine sort of on a comparable token basis, cross models across the period, token prices have fallen anywhere from 70% to 90% year over year, consistently back to 2021.
But let's put that aside for one second.
Think about it, turn it the other way around.
So if I'm now, my business is now, I'm unbundling and I'm selling tokens and that's the way customers, you're telling my customers to think about it.
So now they're looking out and they start to see what's happening with token prices and if I go back one generation, maybe those prices are cheaper.
Now we have this classic financial problem of what's called a duration mismatch, right?
So I have debt funding the data centers that's 10 to 15 years duration and longer, which is predicated on fixed payments, but being made on the basis of tokens
where you're telling the customer to control your costs, you may want to look back in time and use an older model.
So I'm paying for a fixed cost with a deflating commodity.
This we know from over and over and over again.
These duration mismatches, especially duration mismatches that are built on top of debt and a deflating commodity are absolutely atomic with respect to causing a blow up in people's obligations with respect to these
Again, the term of art, you got a duration mismatch on top of a deflating commodity that can only end very, very badly.
And it was masked because for a while, you weren't exposed directly to that.
You were just paying a straight up subscription, almost like Amazon Prime.
And of course, that doesn't work because Amazon Prime's costs across the board are declining, whereas costs are increasing at the frontier, declining in the back catalog, if you will, of tokens.
Showing 601–620 of 1,259 · page 31 of 63
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