Paul Smith

speaker

84 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 18 Jul

Paul Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making. · PMI in Focus: High Frequency Signals for an Uncertain Business Environment · 18 Jul 2026 podcast

I think has really, re really reinforced to us again the value of the monthly PMI data and how it can really help shape understanding of current economic trends in such a an uncertain environment.

And I think I always think about kind of policy makers or businesses that

needing to make kind of choices and decisions in this kind of environment.

Important kind of investment decisions or maybe projecting demand and sales figures.

And I think when you're trying to do that kind of thing, it's important to have some confidence around where the business environment and the economy are at this kind of at this time, especially when there's turning points in the business cycle or market conditions have we seen

Are changing rapidly.

I think you don't want to be waiting in that situation for slowly released official figures, right?

They're inherently backward looking, or they maybe cover a quarter rather than individual months and therefore tend to provide some rather limited insight on the effects of shocks, especially those that occur late in a quarter, like we saw with the kind of developments in the Middle East.

late February into March, when that kind of really started to escalate.

And if you think about if you were using some of that official data, you'd still actually be waiting for information on how economies have been performing throughout this period.

So if you're just looking at say quarterly GDP figures, way of knowing where we're at without them kind of PMI data sets.

Yeah, a nice nice reference to current current events around the World Cup at the moment.

And

You're absolutely right.

And it is something that we've been thinking about recently with our kind of colleagues in the broader global risk and economics business.

And we've actually produced a small case study around this.

And I'm hoping Kristen, our producer of these podcasts, could maybe drop a kind of a link into the description for the podcast so people can take a closer look at that.

But what ultimately that case study does, it just shows

the possibility of combining the PMI signals, the kind of near term

with our wider macroeconomic projections to give us that fuller picture of kind of the near-term environment and then through kind of the medium to longer term trends in terms of growth and really that that emergence of how things are developing over that longer time horizon.

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