Paul Smith
speaker
84 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 18 Jul
Paul Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And I think that's vital in making those informed decisions around investment or a guide guide guarding maybe against what we've seen emerging supply chain shocks.
Especially as our forecast from our World Economic Service, which we update monthly as well.
And it does and I know that they will incorporate as well that latest information from the PMI data.
We're kind of doing the heavy lifting there for people.
That covers 68 countries or 90% of global GDP.
So where we've got PMI data, we've also got that macroeconomic projection as well.
Yeah.
It's a good question, Phil.
And I think my Eurozone PMI is is really a great PMI against kind of tracking against GDP trends and developments.
And I think it is pretty legitimate of me to emphasize at the time when we recorded our last podcast, I was highlighting some real risks of potential contraction in zone GDP for the second quarter as a whole and therefore actual potential of a technical recession in
The Eurozone.
But I think with all this kind of work, and again, it just highlights the importance here of kind of high frequency data, the news flow is really important in helping us to readjust those forecasts.
The last month or two, as we've suggested, there's been a little bit more of stabilization in the PMI data, again, at the time linked to an easing of the conflict in the Middle East.
And then you combine that with some relatively decent official.
industrial data, again, something that we've highlighted as a possibility.
I think there's been a deputy of some of those downside risks, to be honest.
But as we keep emphasizing, there's still a lot of uncertainty, right?
And but it feels there's an outcome potentially now there's a path here of a flat GDP reading or even some kind of very minor quarterly GDP growth is p is possible.
And therefore the avoidance potentially of that technical recession.
But I think it really changes the underlying picture too much though in terms of the Eurozone's performance in the medium term.
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