Peter McCrory

And sort of that could lead to a greater risk of job displacement or lower wages for that type of role.

I think the complement of that would be lawyers are doing more than just looking at legal documents.

There's a lot of

interpersonal negotiation exactly bearing the burden of the liability when you sign your name on the document.

And so there you might actually see wages rise as this technology complements sort of, it's like another form of skill bias technical change.

Two, five, 10 years out from now, that's going to be much harder to anticipate given how quickly capabilities are developing, but that might be something that's on the near term.

I think the way that I think about the jaggedness, it would be along two fronts.

One, there's sort of the jagged frontier of capabilities that, you know, we're improving along

many dimensions, but we're proceeding more quickly along some domains, coding more so than others.

And so you get sort of this jagged baseline capability that is proceeding.

And then you also have the question of adoption, exactly to your point.

And historically, the adoption and diffusion of new technologies requires firms to make costly investments

in new capital or new organizational workflows.

That was kind of a point from our last report.

And so that suggests that there will be this like jagged adoption.

Maybe coding again is a great example because we had very, very swift adoption here because of the contextual information is right there for the model.

It can traverse with cloud code and can traverse the repository to figure out how to complete the task that it's actually capable to complete.

We just introduced Claude Cowork, which suggests that there will be maybe another sort of jump for knowledge domains that have sort of similar properties through that type of interface, given the underlying capabilities.

But I definitely agree with the point that it's not this inexorable and smooth march.

And I think in some sense, as an economist, it's actually somewhat helpful to