Phil Orlando
speaker
136 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2019
last heard Oct 2019
Phil Orlando’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
That's exactly our point, that there are half a dozen key items that are going to take place over the course of the next month.
And whether or not we can get China-U.S.
trade back on track is one of them.
If trade does get back on track.
and we hit some of these other metrics, better labor market data, better inflation data, corporate earnings for the second quarter aren't too bad, GDP for the second quarter isn't too bad, then in our opinion, that lessens the need for the Federal Reserve to come in and start cutting interest rates aggressively on July 31st.
The thing that's interesting from a market's perspective is
is investors have priced in with absolute certainty that the Fed is going to start cutting rates at the end of July.
The only question is, will it be a 25 or a 50 basis point cut?
Our point is, there may not be a cut at all.
And with the stock market sitting here at all-time record highs, does that set the market up for some potential disappointment and maybe a little bit of an air pocket?
The fixed income investor is in sort of a perilous place right now because you've got benchmark 10-year treasury yields have already rallied hard and you've got yields down at 2%, roughly a three-year low.
And I think the cycle low is about a percent and a half or thereabouts, not materially below where we are now.
So if you thought that we were heading into an imminent recession or something like that, which is not our call,
How much more juice is there left in the bond market rally?
The approach we would take is to get your yield somewhere else and specifically
A lot of companies, I'm sure, have products like this, but we have something called the Strategic Value Fund, which invests in very high-quality blue-chip defensive names and right now is offering a dividend yield of 4%, literally twice Treasuries.
And so not only would you get a yield double the bond yield, but you'd also get the potential for capital appreciation over time as those companies continue to grow and produce higher earnings and see capital appreciation.
So if I'm looking for yield, I think I get that yield from the stock market right now, not the bond market.
The understanding of why gold is rallying here is perfectly understandable.
The dollar has been weaker lately over the course of this first half of the year versus the euro.
Showing 101–120 of 136 · page 6 of 7
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