Phil Smith
speaker
31 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2013
last heard Jan 2013
Phil Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
These horses, if they were running over a mile and it were a handicap, the 140 horse would have to give £20 to the 120 horse, and that would be a difference of around about 10 lengths.
So we would expect, if they ran against each other on level weights, we'd expect the 140 horse over a mile to beat the 120 horse by 10 lengths.
It's probably 80% judgment and 20% arithmetical.
Well, you could get a computer to do it, but the problem with getting a computer to do it, all it could do is calculate pounds per length.
Looking at some of Frankel's races, when he won at York, for example, he won by seven lengths there.
That's a long way.
That's over a second.
And yet when I was assessing that race, I didn't call the winning distance seven lengths because I looked at...
how Frankel was finishing compared with how the second horse, Farr, was finishing and I judged the winning distance to be actually nine and a quarter lengths because Frankel won the race easily.
The jockey was not hard on the horse at the end whereas every other jockey was hard at work on the horse and they were trying absolutely their best and they couldn't have got any closer to Frankel.
Give him an extra point.
That's very similar to what happens.
And we had a debate in Hong Kong where we showed a number of Frankel's races.
And I have to justify my addition of a couple of lengths in the race at York.
And we watched the video of the race.
They're in there.
There are 20 other experienced international handicappers.
And they may well turn around and say, well, actually, no, we disagree.
We think he's only valued for a length and a half more, or perhaps he's better than that.
Maybe he's valued for three and a quarter lengths, in which case obviously you'd get him higher.
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