Phil Suttle
speaker
557 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard Jul 2025
Phil Suttle’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Maybe we're going from a potential growth rate of two, two and a half to to one.
Um, not because of CapEx or anything on the productivity side, but simply because we're going from a labor forced growth rate of one and a half percent during the second half of the Biden term to negative.
You know, that's a big, big delta, which we rarely see.
You know, demographics tend to be pretty stable, but I think that's going to be a very powerful factor.
So that kind of kicks into this notion that you've got lots of different things going on in the economy.
You know, pickup in some investment, depression in others.
You know, partly related to uncertainty and partly related to the losers from imports, you know, higher import prices, of which there are many.
Um, and then you've got this uh issue of, you know, how much underlying demand growth are we going to see domestically?
in a world where our population is falling rather than
Yeah, yeah.
I th I think you're right.
And my my growth forecast for Europe at the end of the year is softer than most, put it that way, has been ever since Trump took over.
Um
you know, the question is, how do you then interpret the the basic fact that Europe's done better so far this year than we all thought?
You know, do you is that a case of okay
There's a lot of preemptive buying and I mean the the clearest example is uh Irish drugs, you know, pharmaceuticals.
There's been a huge amount of stuff produced in Ireland and stockpiled in the United States ahead of pharmaceutical tariffs.
So that was a clear and that that big enough to actually have affected the European and macro data.
Um
So that that that effect will fade.
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