Phil Suttle
speaker
557 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard Jul 2025
Phil Suttle’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
previously very bullish consumers turn a bit more cautious at that lower end of
I I I I remember when I uh was learning economics and I've still got the textbooks on the on the shelf, they were looking at the factors that
drove investment.
You know, we all have these models, uh, you know, to predict investment.
And y you reckon you realise at the end of the day,
none of them really worked on any sustained basis because the the sand was so slippery that you know it was always shifting underneath your your um so I think you know what we've got going on in the investment environment in the US at the moment is a lot of very diverse trends.
We've got an unambiguous tack boom underway.
Which I think
parallels the the nineteen nineties, the late nineteen nineties.
looking at it more from a uh
asset uh strong asset pricing, you know, lifting investment.
And and one way of thinking about it is uh we're back in one of those environments where there's the the FOMO phenomenon where, you know, their competitors are doing it, so they have to do it.
Uh and that drove a lot of Capex spending in the late nineties.
Uh ultimately things, you know, went wrong when the Fed had to tighten and, you know, the bubble burst.
Obviously this environment, who knows how it will play out.
But that's that's one important factor that seems to be driving US investment more than probably in other countries, although you know, obviously places like Taiwan are going gangbusters off off off of this effect.
Well, so let me throw in another I'm not again not changing the subject, but throwing another point about growth, which is that, you know, one of Trump's most important policies uh has been a very re aggressive policy on on on migration, on labor supply.
And it's I think showing up pretty clearly already in the data, meaning what we're gonna see is much weaker labor force growth, probably frankly
frankly negative labor force growth over the next year.
Um, and any growth model I know says that reduces your potential growth rate.
Showing 121–140 of 557 · page 7 of 28
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