Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter
speaker
351 appearances
17 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2010
last heard Jan 2021
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
All data collections are imperfect and incomplete, and it necessarily follows that different experts might legitimately assign different probabilities to the same set of observations."
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This is a great way of saying that probabilities are really constructed on the basis of our knowledge and experience, and we can't expect them to be completely iron-hard facts that everyone agrees with.
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And as the forensic scientists point out, if you throw out the use of probabilistic reasoning when there's ever any question about what the probabilities are, you're left with phrases such as, oh, this could have come from, is consistent with, which is ripe to be misleading.
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Absolutely.
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Probabilities always are fuzzy to some extent.
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There's always some judgment that goes into their construction.
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And it would be really a huge loss if we threw out the whole possibility of rational reasoning of evidence in legal cases just because we can't agree on some numbers to three decimal places.
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Professor David Spiegelhalter.
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If you're going to give people health advice, it would seem to me that you really have to balance the entire consequences of their change of behaviour in terms of all the possible outcomes that might happen.
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If that number could be just explainable by random variation, then it doesn't suggest anything's wrong at all.
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If it's a bit larger than that, then obviously it deserves further investigation.
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If you've got somebody who's claiming that their procedure was 99.99% accurate, well, you know, that means one in 10,000
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It seemed a good idea at the time.
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It was my daughter's idea that we should both try to get on it.
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And I've always loved the programme.
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I like slapstick.
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I've got a rather childish sense of humour.
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But also, when I went along for the audition, I really plugged the fact that I thought this embodied a really positive side of risk-taking.
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You know, it's taking a chance, it's going for something full belt, with the real possibility of failure and humiliation, but also the possibility you may surprise yourself and everybody else.
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I know everything's padded, but actually there's quite big falls.
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Showing 261–280 of 351 · page 14 of 18
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