Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter

speaker

351 appearances 17 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2010 last heard Jan 2021

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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More or Less · Who are the 1% and the 99%? · 23 Dec 2011 podcast

Yeah. voice-verified

Yeah, I think it was. voice-verified

I mean, when you get there and there's an ambulance and divers and things like that, you're not sure whether to be reassured or anxious because of it. voice-verified

People do get hurt and people break things. voice-verified

Every series, a few people break things. voice-verified

Well, I don't really care. voice-verified

I had a great time. voice-verified

I thought it was a wonderful experience. voice-verified

But people seem to have, you know, well, the people who have talked to me don't seem to have thought too badly about it. voice-verified

More or Less · Big numbers · 7 Jan 2011 podcast

I think they're really important lessons because all the time we're hearing claims on the radio or the TV about the latest medical treatment that's made some people better, cured some diseases. voice-verified

And the problem is that if we only hear about successes, it's impossible to judge the true chances. voice-verified

It's like only seeing film of a goalkeeper when he saves penalties and not seeing any of the times he's let them in. voice-verified

We just can't judge how good he is. voice-verified

Well, it's not that different because the point is that Paul had become famous two years before in Germany. voice-verified

And so other German zoos, for example, there was a hippopotamus, there was a porcupine, all making predictions. voice-verified

Now, Paul got the first three right, but there are many animals making predictions, so it's almost certain one of them would get them right. voice-verified

And that's when he started becoming famous. voice-verified

The first coverage appeared on the BBC just before the Germany-England match, which was the fourth match that Germany were playing. voice-verified

Yes. voice-verified

Even if we ignore the first three that he got right, because we wouldn't have heard about him if he hadn't got them right, he still then got five right in a row, and where each of the predictions was being announced in advance. voice-verified

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