Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter
speaker
351 appearances
17 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2010
last heard Jan 2021
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So he would just ask someone, when did you first have sex with someone, you know, other than your wife?
His methods and his data are largely discredited now.
He was a biologist.
He didn't believe in random samples of a population.
He believed in trying to find the extremes of identifying every type of behavior.
So he deliberately target groups where he suspected they would have some extreme behavior.
Ah, yeah, one-star.
One-star regard is the sort of statistics that you get when you look on an internet site or open a magazine, where we've done a reader's survey, and it's where people just put up a form, they just stick it up on a website, and people who feel like it fill up the form and say what they get up to.
And these surveys can be very large.
The last one from Time Out was 10,000 people.
But I still wouldn't trust it at all.
last year, maybe 1,000 were killed, which is a lot, a very high number.
But it still means that for an average person getting on a flight, one in three million chance.
And if you're in a modern airline, in a Western major carrier, then the chance is going to be even lower.
I think up to maybe one in 20 million chance.
And that's roughly cycling a mile or driving 10 miles, which we do every day.
If you think of it, there's this distinction that people make between a hazard and a risk.
And a hazard is something that flying five miles up in a plane is extremely hazardous.
There's all sorts of catastrophic things that could happen.
It's not actually risky because of this enormous amount of safety that's built in now to modern aircraft, as we've heard.
Showing 81–100 of 351 · page 5 of 18
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