Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter
speaker
351 appearances
17 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2010
last heard Jan 2021
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
but our minds concentrate on the potential for harm.
And, of course, there hasn't been a major crash in three months, but we don't think about, oh, there hasn't been one for a while.
When they do come, we just remember the last ones that happened.
And, of course, last year there were three major ones in eight days in July, but you can work out that, in fact, just by chance alone, you'd expect something like that to happen about every ten years.
The crucial thing is this assumption that each person working is seeing 1,200 clients a year.
And this seems very high indeed.
And we can do a few little sort of reality checks on this.
It would mean, for example, that everybody working in prostitution was actually turning over £100,000 a year.
And this doesn't seem plausible from people who know about these things.
Cheese, lovely.
Well, first of all, we can consider a particular period of eight days, say between July the 17th and July the 25th.
And we can work out that the chance of having three crashes in that period is around a one in a thousand chance.
I mean, very rare indeed.
It's extremely small indeed.
But that's the chance of it happening in that particular window, which isn't really what we're interested in.
We want to know, you know, what's the chance of getting a cluster such as that over a longer period, you know, say 10 years or so.
So we can look at the fact that there are about 450 eight-day windows over those 10 years.
And the chance of getting at least three crashes in one of those windows is about 40%.
But in fact, of course, we're not even interested in that.
We're interested in some moving eight-day window, you know, over the whole 10 years.
Showing 101–120 of 351 · page 6 of 18
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