Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter
speaker
351 appearances
17 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2010
last heard Jan 2021
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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These plausible values, I think, are open to some criticism because they're predicted conditional on, in fact, knowing the difficulty of the questions as if these are fixed constants, even though they're only estimated based on a subsample of students, and assuming that the difficulty is the same for all students around the whole world.
I quite like their maths test.
I think it'd be great if kids could answer these maths questions.
I think it'd be really useful for society and for their ability to cope in the world.
But actually, it's not the be-all and end-all.
And aligning policy along a single performance indicator or even one or two performance indicators can cause all sorts of distortions in a system.
And I think what it should do is create a wider debate about what do you want to add to an education system.
But, you know, when you look at what's going on in Korea, which does very well, the kids are miserable.
65 out of 65 in the league table for happiness in schools.
The Japanese kids don't feel pleased when they get good grades.
My notable number, not really my favourite, is 50,000.
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According to the Panorama programme that was on 10th September, this is the estimated number of deaths of pensioners in England that would be avoided over the next 10 years if a minimum alcohol price of 50p per unit were set.
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Now, even before the programme was aired, there were bloggers saying this figure seemed really completely implausible.
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It's about 80% of all the deaths of pensioners that, according to the Office for National Statistics, were even remotely associated with alcohol.
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Then, a few weeks later, the BBC put up a little notice on their website saying that, well, unfortunately, due to human error of the statistical team at Sheffield University that did their analysis, the figure shouldn't have been 50,000, it should have been 11,500.
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And they re-edited the programme.
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Now, in fact, this number still seems ridiculous.
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for lives saved due to minimum alcohol pricing are generally based on a model built at Sheffield University.
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But this 50,000 figure didn't seem to fit even with their previous analyses.
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More or Less · Predicting L'Aquila Earthquake: is it right to blame the scientists? · 29 Oct 2012
podcast
It seems to me this is a triple tragedy.
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Showing 161–180 of 351 · page 9 of 18
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