Richard Miniter

The US Treasury is doing a fantastic job locking up their resources at banks around the world and cutting them off from customers.

And the US Navy is cutting down their shadow fleet, as is the Indian Navy and a few other allies.

And so which alarm clock goes off first?

Who loses?

And I think predicting the outcome and saying someone, this person is, this side is definitely gonna win or this side is definitely gonna win.

I don't think that's possible at this stage.

I think what I was trying to say about the military difficulty is that a ground invasion would not just be politically impossible, but it'd be militarily unthinkable.

the reason why the last successful invasion of Iran was Alexander the Great, right?

These are a tenacious, intelligent people who've got for themselves very fortunate geography.

And even the ethnic minorities in Iran do not necessarily want Iran to be broken up into pieces.

So they may rally to the mullahs side and the mullahs know all this.

On the other hand, the mullahs' interpretation of Shia Islam is distasteful to many.

You see stories in the Iranian language press that mosques are being closed because the prayers, the preaching at Jummah prayers on Fridays are not friendly to the regime.

And so, you know, both alarm clocks are ticking.

And to say either one is a sure bet, I think would be bad analysis.

We'll be right back.

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